Historian MacMillan warns Russia behaving like rogue state risks wider conflict

October 3, 2026 at 12:45 PM2 min

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Canadian historian Margaret MacMillan warns that Russia is behaving like a rogue state prepared to use any means, risking wider global conflict. She argues that if Russia prevails in Ukraine, it would be enormously destabilizing for Europe and worrying for the world. MacMillan also notes that an independent Ukraine would create a powerful military rival for Russia and deepen its dependence on China.

Key Facts

Margaret MacMillan is an emeritus professor of international history at Oxford University and author of several books on war and international relations.
MacMillan describes Russia's war in Ukraine as a clear case of unprovoked aggression against the will of the Ukrainian people.
She warns that if Russia gets away with its aggression, the worst-case scenario would be Russia forcing Ukraine into dependency.
MacMillan states that Russia has been seriously weakened and has become much more dependent on China.
She argues that Ukraine has become a major military power due to its adaptability, high-tech capabilities, and wartime experience.

Russia's Rogue State Behavior

Margaret MacMillan, an emeritus professor of international history at Oxford University, characterizes Russia as behaving like a rogue state prepared to use any means, including subversive and asymmetric warfare plus outright war. She asserts that the war in Ukraine is a clear case of unprovoked aggression against the will of the Ukrainian people, despite false stories and lies being spread. MacMillan warns that if Russia gets away with its aggression, the worst-case scenario would be Russia forcing Ukraine into some sort of dependency. She emphasizes that such an outcome would be enormously destabilizing for Europe and very worrying for the rest of the world.

Consequences for Russia and Ukraine

MacMillan argues that an agreement leaving an independent Ukraine would be a real problem for Russia, as it would create a powerful military rival next door. She notes that Russia itself has been seriously weakened and has become much more dependent on China. Ukraine has shown itself to be enormously adaptable, combining high-tech, flexibility, and wartime experience to become a major military power. MacMillan describes this development as something the Russians have created for themselves.

Risk of Wider Conflict

In a recent opinion piece in The New York Times titled 'A New World Order Is Coming. We Aren’t Ready.', MacMillan warned that the world might be teetering precariously close to World War III. She wrote that a world war is not inevitable, but the threat of a catastrophic conflict between big and well-armed powers is closer than it has been for decades.