Kazakhstan manufacturing PMI hits 46.4 in September, sharpest order drop in 4.5 years

October 1, 2026 at 12:39 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Kazakhstan's manufacturing PMI fell to 46.4 in September from 46.0 in August, marking the sharpest decline in new orders in four and a half years. The index has remained below the 50-point threshold for nine consecutive months, signaling a deepening contraction in business conditions.

Key Facts

The manufacturing PMI for Kazakhstan fell to 46.4 in September from 46.0 in August, the sharpest drop in new orders in four and a half years.
The PMI has remained below the 50-point threshold for nine consecutive months, indicating contraction in the sector.
Employment in manufacturing declined for the eighth consecutive month, and some companies suspended operations due to equipment problems.
Input cost inflation eased to its slowest pace in three years, while supply chain disruptions and customs delays from Russia persisted.
Freedom Holding Corp. analyst Saltanat Mukhambetaliyeva noted that weak domestic demand, especially in food processing, remains a key constraint.

PMI Contraction

The Purchasing Managers' Index for Kazakhstan's manufacturing sector registered 46.4 in September, up slightly from 46.0 in August but still below the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction. This marks the ninth consecutive month the index has remained in contraction territory, the longest such streak in the survey's history. New orders fell at the fastest pace in four and a half years, with respondents citing weak domestic demand and logistical bottlenecks. Production volumes declined sharply, and employment contracted for the eighth straight month, with some firms halting operations due to equipment failures.

Supply Chain and Costs

Manufacturers continued to report disruptions in supply networks and delays at customs when receiving inputs from Russia. Purchasing activity fell sharply as companies reduced input buying in response to lower production requirements. Inflationary pressures eased, with the rate of input cost inflation slowing to its weakest in three years. Despite the cost relief, firms remained cautious, and some turned away clients due to capacity constraints.

Analyst Commentary

Saltanat Mukhambetaliyeva, head of economic research and analytics at Freedom Holding Operations, said September results indicate persistent pressure on the sector. She highlighted weak domestic demand, particularly in the food processing industry, as the main drag on activity. Large manufacturers experienced an acceleration in the pace of contraction, while medium-sized enterprises fared somewhat better. Mukhambetaliyeva noted that continued job cuts amid capacity expansion suggest the investment impulse has not yet translated into new orders or employment. However, she added that market participants expressed more optimism about the next 12 months, which could support gradual stabilization.