Qatar LNG outage shifts $60bn in deals to Argentina, Timor-Leste, Tanzania

September 22, 2026 at 05:23 AM3 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Qatar's loss of 17% of LNG export capacity after March strikes has pushed buyers toward alternative suppliers, with agreements worth an estimated $60 billion announced or advanced at Gastech in Bangkok. Proposed projects in Argentina, Timor-Leste and Tanzania drew interest from buyers and investors. Energy prices pulled back sharply on Monday, with oil falling below $100 per barrel for the first time in two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated openness to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly.

Key Facts

Qatar's LNG export capacity fell by roughly 17% after March strikes damaged two production units at Ras Laffan.
Wood Mackenzie estimates total repair costs for Qatari gas-processing capacity at about $5.8 billion, with full repairs on damaged liquefaction trains taking up to three years.
QatarEnergy pushed back the launch of the first production unit at the North Field East project to the first half of 2027 and extended force majeure declarations on contracted supplies into November 2026.
Qatar exported more than 80 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, with India receiving 11.9 million tonnes, Taiwan 8.2 million tonnes, and Europe accounting for 11% of total supply.
Iran lost roughly a third of its gas capacity following the conflict.

Supply Disruption

Qatar's North Field and Iran's South Pars occupy the same 9,000-square-kilometer gas formation, which holds 25% of the world's gas resources and supplies 10% of global production. Strikes damaged production and processing facilities on both sides, cutting Qatar's LNG export capacity and reducing the gas available to Iran's domestic market. The March strikes damaged two LNG production units at Ras Laffan, cutting Qatar's export capacity by roughly 17%. Restrictions on shipping and exports reduced Qatar's hydrocarbon GDP by 25.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, pulling the overall economy down 7%.

Market Response

With 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity disabled and Gulf shipments disrupted, buyers arrived at Gastech looking for gas from somewhere else. Organizers valued the agreements announced or advanced in Bangkok at an estimated $60 billion, including a 20-year U.S. LNG contract and a 35-year production agreement in the Gulf of Thailand. Proposed projects in Argentina, Timor-Leste and Tanzania drew interest from buyers and investors. Energy prices pulled back sharply on Monday, with oil falling below $100 per barrel for the first time in two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he is open to a potential meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in New York, scheduled to kick off on Tuesday.

Long-Term Outlook

Wood Mackenzie's Alexandre Araman said Qatar is managing $5.8 billion in repairs and recovery timelines of up to twelve months while commissioning the largest LNG expansion programme in the world. Araman added that 54 million tonnes per annum of uncontracted Qatari volumes will reach the market by 2035, and buyers are making long-term security decisions right now. He said the conflict has turned a well-understood geographical concentration risk into an operational reality across the entire value chain, from wellhead to export terminal. The situation is just as dire in Iran, with the country having lost roughly a third of its gas capacity following the conflict.