Ancient DNA maps plague's 400-year return across Europe after Black Death

September 20, 2026 at 11:53 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Researchers at the University of Tartu reconstructed 26 Yersinia pestis genomes from remains at 11 sites in five countries, spanning the 14th to 18th centuries. The genetic evidence shows plague repeatedly resurfaced in different parts of Europe, creating new reservoirs rather than spreading from a single source. The study identifies a major lineage expansion around 1450–1500 that split into three branches, possibly aided by the Great Renaissance Drought.

Key Facts

The team reconstructed 26 genomes of Yersinia pestis from human remains at 11 archaeological sites in Estonia, Russia, England, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.
The samples date from the fourteenth through the eighteenth centuries, covering much of the Second Plague Pandemic.
Around 1450–1500, plague lineages underwent a major expansion and split into three important branches that may have established new reservoirs in wild rodents.
The researchers point to the Great Renaissance Drought as one possible factor influencing the lineage expansion.
Senior author Prof. Kristiina Tambets stated the team found evidence for repeated introductions of plague into Estonia starting in the late 14th century and identified several previously unknown genetic lineages in urban and rural settings.

Genomic Reconstruction

Researchers at the University of Tartu analyzed ancient DNA from archaeological human remains to reconstruct how plague spread and evolved after the Black Death. The team recovered 26 Yersinia pestis genomes from 11 sites across Estonia, Russia, England, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. The samples span the fourteenth through eighteenth centuries, covering a large portion of the Second Plague Pandemic. The genetic evidence suggests plague did not survive in one place and spread outward from a single source, but instead resurfaced in different parts of Europe over hundreds of years.

Lineage Expansion and Reservoirs

Around 1450–1500, plague lineages underwent a major expansion and split into three important branches. Those branches may have helped establish new reservoirs of Yersinia pestis in wild rodent populations. The researchers point to the Great Renaissance Drought as one possible factor, noting that modern studies show climate changes can strongly affect outbreaks among wild rodents. Estonia was repeatedly affected, with signs that plague entered the region multiple times during much of the Second Plague Pandemic.

Estonian Introductions

Senior author Prof. Kristiina Tambets stated the team found evidence for repeated introductions of plague into Estonia starting in the late 14th century. The researchers identified several previously unknown genetic lineages in both urban and rural settings. Estonia's connections with other parts of Europe helped disease move across long distances, according to the study.