Analysts warn strong tenge rally may end in sharp reversal

September 18, 2026 at 08:00 AM2 min

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Kazakhstan's tenge strengthened to 444.91 per dollar on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange on September 17, prompting analysts to warn that the rally may reverse sharply. Financial analyst Arman Beisembayev said importers and consumers benefit from cheaper imports and slowing inflation, while exporters and domestic producers face mounting pressure. Economists caution that the factors supporting the currency could turn against it, risking a sudden depreciation.

Key Facts

The tenge traded at 444.91 per dollar on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange on September 17, 2026.
Financial analyst Arman Beisembayev said importers benefit from the strong tenge because they pay in foreign currency and earn in tenge.
Economist Aidarkhan Kusainov said domestic grain producers are already facing problems due to cheap Russian grain.
Beisembayev said farmers are complaining they cannot sell their harvest even at cost.
Kusainov noted that in the short term the strong tenge may support trade, construction, and transport sectors.

Currency Market Movement

The tenge strengthened to 444.91 per dollar on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange on September 17, 2026. The dollar fell below 450 tenge for the first time in the current rally. Analysts now focus on what happens when the factors supporting the tenge begin to work in the opposite direction.

Sectoral Impact

Financial analyst Arman Beisembayev said importers earn well on the strengthening exchange rate because they spend foreign currency and earn in tenge. He added that cheaper imports help slow inflation, which the National Bank welcomes. Exporters, by contrast, receive fewer tenge when converting unchanged foreign currency revenue. Beisembayev said the agricultural sector is especially sensitive, with farmers already complaining they cannot sell their harvest even at cost. Economist Aidarkhan Kusainov said domestic grain producers face problems from cheap Russian grain as the strong tenge makes imports cheaper and domestic goods less competitive.

Short-Term Support

Kusainov said the strong tenge may help sectors targeted for GDP growth in the short term, including trade, construction, and transport. He stressed that the over-strengthening of the tenge is rather bad for domestic producers.