Shein's slowing growth tests investor appetite ahead of Hong Kong IPO

August 12, 2026 at 07:42 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Shein faces questions over whether its slowing growth, rising costs and changing market conditions justify a $30 billion to $40 billion IPO price tag after cutting its expected valuation from a near $100 billion private market peak. Five investors who attended presentations ahead of a Hong Kong offering expected as early as August 19 say they doubt the retailer can return to 2022's growth rates. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate a fair value range of $39 billion to $52 billion.

Investor Skepticism

Five investors who reviewed financial statements ahead of the Hong Kong listing said they are not convinced Shein can return to the growth rates of its $100 billion 2022 round. One described the company as still a supply chain business at its core, pointing to slowing sales growth from competition and pressure on its business model. Another called Shein a maturing e-commerce business whose IPO valuation must reflect a more modest outlook. A third said it should be valued at a single-digit price-to-earnings ratio, closer to PDD Holdings.

Valuation Pressure

Shein cut its expected IPO valuation to $30 billion to $40 billion, down from a near $100 billion private market peak. Morgan Stanley analysts, one of the IPO sponsors alongside Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, estimated a fair value range of $39 billion to $52 billion. That range is based on 18 to 24 times Shein's projected 2027 earnings, compared with the multiples at Inditex and H&M. Under terms in Shein's IPO filing, founders would have to provide extra shares to certain pre-IPO investors if the valuation falls below agreed thresholds.

Growth Slowdown

Shein's revenue rose 41.1% in 2023 and 20.7% in 2024, but Coresight expects growth to slow to around 2% this year. Customs changes in key markets are raising costs and weighing on demand. The European Union imposed hefty fees on e-commerce packages in July, adding to cost pressures in key markets. Management highlighted plans to expand Shein's portfolio of in-house brands, though investors questioned whether that is a meaningful new growth avenue.