Kyrgyz exports to China plummet 98% amid sanctions-busting speculation as Kazakhstan trade surges 25%

July 29, 2026 at 10:58 PM1 min

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China’s trade with Central Asia grew 6.5% year-on-year to $52.94 billion in the first half of 2026, driven by strong increases in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan, by contrast, saw exports to China collapse 98% to just $75 million, reviving suspicions that its earlier boom was linked to sanctions-busting for Russia. Bilateral trade with China in Kyrgyzstan shrank 32% to $9.7 billion.

Overall Trade Growth

Total trade between China and five Central Asian states reached $52.94 billion in January–June 2026, a 6.5% increase from the same period last year. China ran a surplus of $34.94 billion in exports against $18 billion in imports. Kazakhstan accounted for the largest share at $27.2 billion, followed by Uzbekistan at $8.87 billion, Kyrgyzstan at $9.7 billion, Tajikistan at $2.35 billion, and Turkmenistan, which saw declining figures.

Kyrgyzstan’s Export Collapse

Kyrgyzstan’s exports to China plunged from $3.89 billion in H1 2025 to $75 million in H1 2026, a decline of 98%. Its imports from China also contracted, falling from $10.36 billion to $9.63 billion. Authorities have not explained the dramatic swings, but analysts link the earlier export boom to Kyrgyzstan’s role as a transit hub for sanctioned goods bound for Russia, possibly settled via gold or other hard-to-trace commodities.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Gains

Kazakhstan’s trade with China rose 25% to $27.2 billion, with imports from Kazakhstan jumping 57% to $12.22 billion, narrowing the trade deficit. Uzbekistan’s turnover grew 31% to $8.87 billion, but its deficit widened as Chinese exports reached $7.65 billion while Uzbek exports rose to only $1.22 billion. Tajikistan’s trade expanded 15% to $2.35 billion, with Chinese exports continuing to dominate.