Global goods trade rises 12.5% on higher prices amid Hormuz disruption
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Global goods trade reached $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 12.5% year-on-year, driven by higher prices rather than volume growth, according to a UNCTAD report. The increase was fueled by energy cost spikes following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Services trade rose 10.5% over the same period.
Price-Driven Growth
UNCTAD's report attributes most of the 12.5% increase in goods trade to higher prices, not higher volumes. Energy trade in oil, gas and coal rose in monetary terms primarily due to cost increases. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and supply fears pushed up energy, transport, logistics and production costs. Commodity prices rose about 3.6% in Q1 and an estimated 5% in Q2.
Regional and Sectoral Shifts
East Asia, led by China and South Korea, was the main driver of global trade growth in early 2026. Other Asian regions saw declines, while Africa and the Americas experienced faster import than export growth. Trade in AI-related goods, digital infrastructure and electric vehicles surged: critical minerals up 38%, semiconductors 25%, batteries 15%, and EVs 11%. Conversely, trade in chemicals, iron, steel and some renewable energy equipment fell.
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