New method predicts solar cycle strength years before peak
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Scientists have developed a method to predict the strength of the sun's next activity cycle up to seven years before its peak, using sunspot numbers at a newly identified 'switch-off' point. An early forecast for Solar Cycle 26 suggests a moderate cycle with a sunspot number of 100–120, similar to or weaker than the current cycle. The research is presented this week at the Royal Astronomical Society's National Astronomy Meeting in Birmingham.
The Switch-Off Point
Researchers led by Sandra Chapman, professor of physics at the University of Warwick, identified that extreme space weather ends abruptly at a specific point in each solar cycle. The number of sunspots at this 'switch-off' point correlates with the peak sunspot number of the next cycle. This allows predictions six to seven years before the next maximum, longer than current methods that wait for solar minimum.
Early Forecast for Cycle 26
Using the new method, the team forecasts a moderate Solar Cycle 26 with a sunspot number of 100–120, comparable to or weaker than Cycle 25. However, exact predictions require waiting two more years until Cycle 25 reaches its switch-off point. A weaker or stronger cycle remains theoretically possible.
Methodology and Implications
The method builds on Chapman's 'sunclock,' which maps solar cycles onto a standard clock, revealing the sudden end of extreme space weather. Sunspots, regions of intense magnetic activity, drive solar flares and coronal mass ejections that affect satellites, communications, and power grids. The approach also identifies when the magnetic field for the next cycle becomes established.
NASA and IBM AI Model Surya
NASA and IBM have developed an AI model named Surya that can forecast solar flares up to two hours in advance. The model aims to mitigate disruptions to satellites, GPS, power grids, and internet infrastructure.
Indian-Origin Scientist Develops Solar Storm Prediction Tool
Neel Savani, a visiting researcher at Imperial College London, has developed a tool capable of predicting large solar storms more than 24 hours in advance. The tool focuses on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and aims to protect Earth-based systems from their effects.
What's Next
The team plans to refine the prediction in about two years when Solar Cycle 25 reaches its switch-off point, allowing observations-based forecasts. It remains unclear whether Cycle 26 will be weaker or stronger than the current moderate estimate, as the method's accuracy depends on the upcoming data.
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New method predicts solar cycle strength years before peak
