EDB cuts Kazakhstan 2026 GDP forecast to 5% after Tengiz accident
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The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 5% from 5.2%, citing a temporary oil output drop at the Tengiz field after a technological accident. The bank improved its inflation outlook to 9.8% and the average tenge rate forecast to 497 per dollar, from 531. Non-oil sectors helped cushion the impact.
Growth Revision
The EDB cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan by 0.2 percentage points to 5%, attributing the revision to a temporary oil output decline at the Tengiz field following a technological accident in early 2026. Output began recovering in the second quarter, limiting the adjustment. The 2027 forecast was raised to 4.6% from 4.5%, supported by expected oil recovery and quasi-government investment.
Inflation and Currency Outlook
The bank lowered its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 9.8% from 10.1%, citing tight monetary policy and macroprudential measures. Annual inflation slowed to 8.9% in the first quarter. The National Bank cut its base rate to 17% in June but signaled cautious further easing. The average tenge rate forecast improved to 497 per dollar from 531, helped by strong capital inflows and a stable current account.
Fiscal and Risk Factors
Budget transfers from the National Fund fell 44.8% in the first quarter, and the fiscal deficit was below expectations due to higher tax revenues. The EDB sees predominantly positive risks, including faster oil recovery and increased quasi-government investment. However, inflation risks remain from a possible lifting of the moratorium on utility tariffs and fuel prices.
What's Next
The EDB will release updated regional forecasts later this year. It remains unclear whether the Tengiz accident will have longer-term output effects or if inflation will accelerate if utility tariffs are raised.
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EDB cuts Kazakhstan 2026 GDP forecast to 5% after Tengiz accident
